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America de Quito vs Orense SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

America de Quito
America de Quito
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Orense SC
Orense SC
6/10/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 17Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

America de Quito46%
×Draw27%
Orense SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Quito
1.40
Orense SC
1.01

America de Quito creates 39% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 42 away

creates per match

America de Quito
1.48
Orense SC
1.19

allows per match

America de Quito
0.84
Orense SC
1.31

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw
73%
America de Quito or Orense SC
73%
Draw or Orense SC
54%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+
22%
Orense SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals
75%
America de Quito 2+ goals
41%
America de Quito 3+ goals
17%
Orense SC 1+ goals
64%
Orense SC 2+ goals
27%
Orense SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)
63%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Orense SC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.48 + Orense SC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Orense SC attack 1.19 + America de Quito defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

America de Quito scores more
46%
level
27%
Orense SC scores more
27%

America de Quito at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America de Quito vs Orense SC

America de Quito beat Orense SC 3-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on June 10, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito).