America de Quito 1–1 Independiente del Valle

America de Quito

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente del Valle

8/3/2019

Liga Pro · Round 20Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Albornoz (Cayambe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

America de Quito36%

×Draw27%

Independiente del Valle36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de QuitoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

America de Quito

1.25

Independiente del Valle

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 134 away

1.33

creates per match

1.56

0.93

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

America de Quito

1.33

Independiente del Valle

1.56

allows per match

America de Quito

0.93

Independiente del Valle

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw

64%

America de Quito or Independiente del Valle

73%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

64%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+

16%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals

71%

America de Quito 2+ goals

36%

America de Quito 3+ goals

13%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

71%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

36%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)

50%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.33 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + America de Quito defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

America de Quito scores more

36%

level

27%

Independiente del Valle scores more

36%

America de Quito at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff