America de Quito 3–2 Ind. Juniors: Result & Stats

America de Quito

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Ind. Juniors

6/14/2023

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 14Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

America de Quito45%

×Draw28%

Ind. Juniors27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de QuitoExpected goals in this matchInd. Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.93

America de Quito

1.31

Ind. Juniors

0.93

America de Quito creates 41% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 124 away

1.48

creates per match

1.01

0.84

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

America de Quito

1.48

Ind. Juniors

1.01

allows per match

America de Quito

0.84

Ind. Juniors

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Ind. Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw

73%

America de Quito or Ind. Juniors

72%

Draw or Ind. Juniors

55%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+

21%

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals

73%

America de Quito 2+ goals

38%

America de Quito 3+ goals

14%

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals

61%

Ind. Juniors 2+ goals

24%

Ind. Juniors 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)

63%

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Ind. Juniors away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.15 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.48 + Ind. Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ind. Juniors attack 1.01 + America de Quito defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

America de Quito scores more

45%

level

28%

Ind. Juniors scores more

27%

America de Quito at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff