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America de Quito vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro 2018

America de Quito
America de Quito
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
8/17/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 22Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

America de Quito54%
×Draw26%
Guayaquil City FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Quito
1.54
Guayaquil City FC
0.85

America de Quito creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

creates per match

America de Quito
1.33
Guayaquil City FC
0.77

allows per match

America de Quito
0.93
Guayaquil City FC
1.75

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw
79%
America de Quito or Guayaquil City FC
74%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
46%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+
28%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals
79%
America de Quito 2+ goals
45%
America de Quito 3+ goals
20%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
57%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
21%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)
72%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.75 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.33 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.77 + America de Quito defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

America de Quito scores more
54%
level
26%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
21%

America de Quito at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America de Quito vs Guayaquil City FC

America de Quito beat Guayaquil City FC 3-0 in Liga Pro on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito).