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America de Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2018

America de Quito
America de Quito
FT
3 – 0
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
7/30/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 19Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

America de Quito49%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Cuenca24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Quito
1.42
Deportivo Cuenca
0.89

America de Quito creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 131 away

creates per match

America de Quito
1.33
Deportivo Cuenca
0.85

allows per match

America de Quito
0.93
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw
76%
America de Quito or Deportivo Cuenca
73%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
51%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals
76%
America de Quito 2+ goals
41%
America de Quito 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)
68%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.33 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + America de Quito defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

America de Quito scores more
49%
level
27%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
24%

America de Quito at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America de Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca

America de Quito beat Deportivo Cuenca 3-0 in Liga Pro on July 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito).