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América de Cali W vs Real San Andrés W — Liga Femenina 2020

América de Cali W
América de Cali W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real San Andrés W
Real San Andrés W
8/2/2021Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 5Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

América de Cali W74%
×Draw17%
Real San Andrés W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

América de Cali W
2.35
Real San Andrés W
0.71

América de Cali W creates 231% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 32 away

creates per match

América de Cali W
1.97
Real San Andrés W
0.75

allows per match

América de Cali W
0.66
Real San Andrés W
2.72

finishing

América de Cali W+0.00on par
Real San Andrés W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América de Cali W ↓

Real San Andrés W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

América de Cali W or draw
90%
América de Cali W or Real San Andrés W
83%
Draw or Real San Andrés W
26%

Winning margin

América de Cali W wins by 2+
50%
Real San Andrés W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

América de Cali W 1+ goals
90%
América de Cali W 2+ goals
68%
América de Cali W 3+ goals
41%
Real San Andrés W 1+ goals
51%
Real San Andrés W 2+ goals
16%
Real San Andrés W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

América de Cali W (draw refunded)
89%
Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América de Cali W at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.66 · 61 matches

Real San Andrés W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América de Cali W attack 1.97 + Real San Andrés W defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.35

Real San Andrés W attack 0.75 + América de Cali W defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

América de Cali W scores more
74%
level
17%
Real San Andrés W scores more
10%

América de Cali W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "América de Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: América de Cali W vs Real San Andrés W

América de Cali W beat Real San Andrés W 4-0 in Liga Femenina on August 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.