América de Cali W 1–1 Millonarios W: Result & Stats

América de Cali W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Millonarios W

8/28/2025

Liga Femenina · Round 6Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

América de Cali W54%

×Draw25%

Millonarios W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

América de Cali WExpected goals in this matchMillonarios W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.94

América de Cali W

1.64

Millonarios W

0.94

América de Cali W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 54 away

1.97

creates per match

1.22

0.66

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

América de Cali W

1.97

Millonarios W

1.22

allows per match

América de Cali W

0.66

Millonarios W

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

América de Cali W+0.00on par

Millonarios W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América de Cali W ↓

Millonarios W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

América de Cali W or draw

78%

América de Cali W or Millonarios W

75%

Draw or Millonarios W

46%

Winning margin

América de Cali W wins by 2+

29%

Millonarios W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

América de Cali W 1+ goals

81%

América de Cali W 2+ goals

49%

América de Cali W 3+ goals

23%

Millonarios W 1+ goals

61%

Millonarios W 2+ goals

24%

Millonarios W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

América de Cali W (draw refunded)

71%

Millonarios W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América de Cali W at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.66 · 61 matches

Millonarios W away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América de Cali W attack 1.97 + Millonarios W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.64

Millonarios W attack 1.22 + América de Cali W defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

América de Cali W scores more

54%

level

25%

Millonarios W scores more

22%

América de Cali W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "América de Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff