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América de Cali W vs Llaneros W — Liga Femenina 2020

América de Cali W
América de Cali Wadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Llaneros W
Llaneros W
6/29/2024Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Quadrangular Semi-finals - 4Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

América de Cali W67%
×Draw21%
Llaneros W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

América de Cali W
1.95
Llaneros W
0.69

América de Cali W creates 183% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 41 away

creates per match

América de Cali W
1.97
Llaneros W
0.71

allows per match

América de Cali W
0.66
Llaneros W
1.93

finishing

América de Cali W+0.00on par
Llaneros W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América de Cali W ↓

Llaneros W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

América de Cali W or draw
88%
América de Cali W or Llaneros W
79%
Draw or Llaneros W
33%

Winning margin

América de Cali W wins by 2+
41%
Llaneros W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

América de Cali W 1+ goals
86%
América de Cali W 2+ goals
58%
América de Cali W 3+ goals
31%
Llaneros W 1+ goals
50%
Llaneros W 2+ goals
15%
Llaneros W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

América de Cali W (draw refunded)
84%
Llaneros W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América de Cali W at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.66 · 61 matches

Llaneros W away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América de Cali W attack 1.97 + Llaneros W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.95

Llaneros W attack 0.71 + América de Cali W defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

América de Cali W scores more
67%
level
21%
Llaneros W scores more
12%

América de Cali W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "América de Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: América de Cali W vs Llaneros W

América de Cali W beat Llaneros W 3-1 in Liga Femenina on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.