America de Cali 4–0 Union Magdalena: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Union Magdalena

C. Barrios 77'

Iago Falqué 54'

A. Sarmiento 24'

F. Suárez 5'

2/1/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 2Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

America de Cali58%

×Draw25%

Union Magdalena16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchUnion Magdalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.70

America de Cali

1.58

Union Magdalena

0.70

America de Cali creates 126% more chances

Season form · 188 home / 83 away

1.49

creates per match

0.63

0.76

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

America de Cali

1.49

Union Magdalena

0.63

allows per match

America de Cali

0.76

Union Magdalena

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Union Magdalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

84%

America de Cali or Union Magdalena

75%

Draw or Union Magdalena

42%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

32%

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

79%

America de Cali 2+ goals

47%

America de Cali 3+ goals

21%

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

50%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

16%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

78%

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.76 · 188 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Union Magdalena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Union Magdalena attack 0.63 + America de Cali defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

America de Cali scores more

58%

level

25%

Union Magdalena scores more

16%

America de Cali at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

D. Quintero

America de Cali · F

8.9

Match Events

5'

F. Suárez↳ D. Quintero

22'

R. Lora

24'

A. Sarmiento

46'

J. Contreras← J. Cano

46'

C. Rodríguez← R. Lora

47'

B. S. Carabali Bonilla

53'

G. Baier

54'

Iago Falqué

66'

Y. Romero← F. Cantillo

69'

K. Andrade

71'

L. Sánchez← Iago Falqué

71'

C. Barrios← A. Sarmiento

77'

C. Barrios↳ D. Quintero

78'

P. Bravo← L. Paz

78'

D. Mosquera← F. Suárez

85'

D. Quiñones← D. Quintero

86'

B. Correa← G. Lucero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaUnion

Overview

55%Possession45%

20Total Shots12

4Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots12

10On Target0

9Off Target8

1Blocked4

14Inside Box5

6Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

337Total Passes279

256Accurate Passes207

76%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3