America de Cali 1–2 Union Magdalena: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Union Magdalena

A. Ramos 49'

D. Vega 62'

J. Vacca 15'

4/20/2022

Copa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

America de Cali44%

×Draw28%

Union Magdalena28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchUnion Magdalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.98

America de Cali

1.31

Union Magdalena

0.98

America de Cali creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.43

creates per match

1.25

0.71

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

America de Cali

1.43

Union Magdalena

1.25

allows per match

America de Cali

0.71

Union Magdalena

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Union Magdalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

72%

America de Cali or Union Magdalena

72%

Draw or Union Magdalena

56%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

20%

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

73%

America de Cali 2+ goals

38%

America de Cali 3+ goals

14%

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

62%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

26%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

61%

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.43 + Union Magdalena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Union Magdalena attack 1.25 + America de Cali defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

America de Cali scores more

44%

level

28%

Union Magdalena scores more

28%

America de Cali at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

15'

42'

42'

45'

46'

49'

50'

56'

M. Ortíz← J. Portilla

60'

62'

65'

71'

72'

D. Lemos← A. Quintana

73'

78'

80'

89'

90+3'

J. Contreras← R. Hinojosa

90+3'

J. Orozco← M. García

America

Union

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Guimarães

46'▲E. Mena←▼L. Sánchez

56'▲M. Ortíz←▼J. Portilla

65'▲J. Segura←▼B. Vera

72'▲D. Lemos←▼A. Quintana

America de Cali substitutes

MenaOrtízSeguraLemosContrerasNovoaMartínez

73'▲R. Vanegas←▼D. Gómez

89'▲I. Camargo←▼D. Vega

90+3'▲J. Contreras←▼R. Hinojosa

90+3'▲J. Orozco←▼M. García

Union Magdalena substitutes

VanegasCamargoContrerasOrozcoUstarizAndradeDonado

Copa Colombia: America de Cali 1–2 Union Magdalena

Union Magdalena beat America de Cali 2-1 in Copa Colombia on April 20, 2022.

Goals: J. Vacca (15'), A. Ramos (49'), D. Vega (62').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.

America de Cali vs Union Magdalena — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Colombia: America de Cali 1–2 Union Magdalena