America de Cali 0–1 Millonarios: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Millonarios

B. Castro 3'

6/1/2023

Primera A · Apertura - Quadrangular - 3Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

America de Cali43%

×Draw28%

Millonarios29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.00

America de Cali

1.27

Millonarios

1.00

America de Cali creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.37

creates per match

1.20

0.81

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Millonarios

1.20

allows per match

America de Cali

0.81

Millonarios

1.16

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

America de Cali+0.03on par

Millonarios+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

71%

America de Cali or Millonarios

72%

Draw or Millonarios

57%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

19%

Millonarios wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

72%

America de Cali 2+ goals

36%

America de Cali 3+ goals

14%

Millonarios 1+ goals

63%

Millonarios 2+ goals

26%

Millonarios 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

59%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 10 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Millonarios defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Millonarios attack 1.20 + America de Cali defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

America de Cali scores more

43%

level

28%

Millonarios scores more

29%

America de Cali at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

S. Vega

Millonarios · M

7.5

Match Events

3'

12'

29'

41'

45+2'

57'

A. Ramos← A. Sarmiento

63'

F. Uribe← L. Castro

70'

L. Sánchez← F. Leys

70'

O. Bertel← B. Castro

85'

D. Mosquera← C. Barrios

85'

D. Quiñones← E. Mena

85'

E. Guerra← L. Bustamante

86'

J. Pereira← D. Giraldo

90+5'

E. Perlaza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaMillonarios

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots8

3Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots8

2On Target4

9Off Target0

3Blocked4

7Inside Box2

7Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

434Total Passes344

362Accurate Passes252

83%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Millonarios

Millonarios beat America de Cali 1-0 in Primera A on June 1, 2023.

Goals: B. Castro (3').

America de Cali controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.

America de Cali vs Millonarios — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Millonarios