America de Cali 0–2 Millonarios: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Millonarios

A. Del Valle 62', 1'

8/25/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 6Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

America de Cali43%

×Draw28%

Millonarios29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.99

America de Cali

1.27

Millonarios

0.99

America de Cali creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.37

creates per match

1.16

0.83

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Millonarios

1.16

allows per match

America de Cali

0.83

Millonarios

1.16

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

America de Cali-0.04on par

Millonarios+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

71%

America de Cali or Millonarios

72%

Draw or Millonarios

57%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

19%

Millonarios wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

72%

America de Cali 2+ goals

36%

America de Cali 3+ goals

14%

Millonarios 1+ goals

63%

Millonarios 2+ goals

26%

Millonarios 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

60%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Millonarios defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Millonarios attack 1.16 + America de Cali defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

America de Cali scores more

43%

level

28%

Millonarios scores more

29%

America de Cali at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

W. Fariñez

Millonarios · G

7.3

Match Events

1'

A. Del Valle↳ C. Marrugo

33'

Juan Domínguez

41'

Anier Figueroa

46'

R. Ovelar← Gabriel Hauche

51'

Jhon Quiñones

57'

K. Viveros← C. Dájome

58'

C. Lizarazo← A. Bernal

62'

A. Del Valle↳ A. Figueroa

64'

Carlos Lizarazo

74'

D. Silva← C. Carrillo

75'

Andres Cadavid

79'

J. Salazar← A. Del Valle

81'

G. Balanta← J. Quiñónes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaMillonarios

Overview

66%Possession34%

20Total Shots6

4Corners4

17Fouls23

Shots

20Total Shots6

5On Target2

7Off Target2

8Blocked2

6Inside Box4

14Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

545Total Passes284

484Accurate Passes211

89%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls23

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1