America de Cali 0–0 Jaguares: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jaguares

8/26/2021

Copa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

America de Cali52%

×Draw27%

Jaguares20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.77

America de Cali

1.42

Jaguares

0.77

America de Cali creates 84% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

1.43

creates per match

0.84

0.71

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

America de Cali

1.43

Jaguares

0.84

allows per match

America de Cali

0.71

Jaguares

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

80%

America de Cali or Jaguares

73%

Draw or Jaguares

48%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

26%

Jaguares wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

76%

America de Cali 2+ goals

41%

America de Cali 3+ goals

17%

Jaguares 1+ goals

54%

Jaguares 2+ goals

18%

Jaguares 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

72%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.43 + Jaguares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Jaguares attack 0.84 + America de Cali defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

America de Cali scores more

52%

level

27%

Jaguares scores more

20%

America de Cali at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

S. Lucumí← J. Rodríguez

46'

D. Quiñónes← L. Paz

46'

N. Tapia← J. Sinisterra

51'

F. Mosquera← C. Carrillo

54'

G. Torres

59'

62'

C. Arrieta

67'

G. Carvajal← R. Ureña

67'

M. Gómez← C. Sierra

67'

J. Labastidas← J. Altamiranda

67'

M. Balanta← D. Díaz

74'

D. Valencia← W. Guisao

80'

J. Lucumi

84'

D. Quinonez

America

Jaguares

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Osorio

39'▲S. Lucumí←▼J. Rodríguez

46'▲D. Quiñónes←▼L. Paz

67'▲G. Carvajal←▼R. Ureña

67'▲M. Gómez←▼C. Sierra

America de Cali substitutes

LucumíQuiñónesCarvajalGómezGraterolAndradeOrtiz

Manager: C. Torres

46'▲N. Tapia←▼J. Sinisterra

51'▲F. Mosquera←▼C. Carrillo

67'▲J. Labastidas←▼J. Altamiranda

67'▲M. Balanta←▼D. Díaz

74'▲D. Valencia←▼W. Guisao

Jaguares substitutes

TapiaMosqueraLabastidasBalantaValenciaGómezRamos