America de Cali 1–0 Jaguares: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jaguares

L. Sánchez 55'

3/24/2019

Primera A · Apertura - 11Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

America de Cali51%

×Draw28%

Jaguares21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.76

America de Cali

1.37

Jaguares

0.76

America de Cali creates 80% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.37

creates per match

0.68

0.83

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Jaguares

0.68

allows per match

America de Cali

0.83

Jaguares

1.36

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

America de Cali-0.04on par

Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

79%

America de Cali or Jaguares

72%

Draw or Jaguares

49%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

25%

Jaguares wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

75%

America de Cali 2+ goals

40%

America de Cali 3+ goals

16%

Jaguares 1+ goals

53%

Jaguares 2+ goals

18%

Jaguares 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

71%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Jaguares attack 0.68 + America de Cali defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

America de Cali scores more

51%

level

28%

Jaguares scores more

21%

America de Cali at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

M. Torres

America de Cali · D

7.8

Match Events

27'

39'

44'

52'

55'

L. Sánchez↳ J. Guevara

66'

L. Paz← L. Sánchez

66'

Rafhael Lucas← J. Obregón

68'

A. Cadavid← Carlos Bejarano

69'

Andrés Arboleda

79'

E. Ibargüen← Y. Mosquera

86'

Fabián Mosquera

90+5'

P. Franco← C. Álvarez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaJaguares

Overview

62%Possession38%

19Total Shots11

7Corners5

19Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots11

6On Target2

8Off Target5

5Blocked4

11Inside Box7

8Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

429Total Passes256

350Accurate Passes178

82%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5