America de Cali 1–0 Envigado: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Envigado

F. Suárez 38'

2/26/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 6Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

America de Cali54%

×Draw27%

Envigado20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.75

America de Cali

1.44

Envigado

0.75

America de Cali creates 92% more chances

Season form · 188 home / 149 away

1.49

creates per match

0.74

0.76

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

America de Cali

1.49

Envigado

0.74

allows per match

America de Cali

0.76

Envigado

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

80%

America de Cali or Envigado

73%

Draw or Envigado

46%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

27%

Envigado wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

76%

America de Cali 2+ goals

42%

America de Cali 3+ goals

18%

Envigado 1+ goals

53%

Envigado 2+ goals

17%

Envigado 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

73%

Envigado (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.76 · 188 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Envigado defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Envigado attack 0.74 + America de Cali defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

America de Cali scores more

54%

level

27%

Envigado scores more

20%

America de Cali at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Zapata

Envigado · M

8.7

Match Events

17'

F. Leys

26'

F. Jaramillo

38'

F. Suárez↳ D. Quintero

46'

L. Paz← Iago Falqué

46'

D. Moreno← E. López

46'

R. España← F. Espinal

59'

C. Barrios

59'

A. Ramos← C. Barrios

69'

L. Sánchez← D. Quintero

69'

W. Hurtado← F. Jaramillo

77'

L. Mosquera← J. Portilla

77'

C. Arrieta← F. Suárez

82'

D. Betancourth← L. Díaz

89'

Heiler Mosquera← Henry Mosquera

90+1'

L. Sanchez

90+4'

J. Zapata

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaEnvigado

Overview

35%Possession65%

8Total Shots27

4Corners9

4Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots27

1On Target5

5Off Target14

2Blocked8

4Inside Box11

4Outside Box16

Passing

35%Possession65%

247Total Passes467

165Accurate Passes378

67%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

4Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1