America de Cali 1–0 Envigado: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Envigado

E. Batalla 38'

1/21/2022

Primera A · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

America de Cali54%

×Draw27%

Envigado20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.75

America de Cali

1.44

Envigado

0.75

America de Cali creates 92% more chances

Season form · 188 home / 149 away

1.49

creates per match

0.74

0.76

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

America de Cali

1.49

Envigado

0.74

allows per match

America de Cali

0.76

Envigado

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

80%

America de Cali or Envigado

73%

Draw or Envigado

46%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

27%

Envigado wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

76%

America de Cali 2+ goals

42%

America de Cali 3+ goals

18%

Envigado 1+ goals

53%

Envigado 2+ goals

17%

Envigado 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

73%

Envigado (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.76 · 188 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Envigado defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Envigado attack 0.74 + America de Cali defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

America de Cali scores more

54%

level

27%

Envigado scores more

20%

America de Cali at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

E. Batalla

America de Cali · F

8.2

Match Events

8'

20'

31'

38'

46'

49'

55'

Y. Celedón← C. Andrade

56'

D. Pino← D. Hernández

61'

D. Córdoba← J. Barragán

61'

W. Hurtado← E. López

65'

A. Jiménez← W. Guisao

66'

W. Hurtado

75'

P. A. Ortiz Cabezas

84'

J. Segura

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaEnvigado

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots6

5Corners1

15Fouls21

Shots

12Total Shots6

7On Target2

4Off Target3

1Blocked1

9Inside Box1

3Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

336Total Passes270

257Accurate Passes188

76%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls21

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3