America de Cali 1–1 Deportes Tolima: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportes Tolima

C. Valencia 12'

S. Villa 72'

2/10/2018

Primera A · Apertura - 2Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

America de Cali41%

×Draw30%

Deportes Tolima29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.94

America de Cali

1.18

Deportes Tolima

0.94

America de Cali creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.37

creates per match

1.05

0.83

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Deportes Tolima

1.05

allows per match

America de Cali

0.83

Deportes Tolima

0.98

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

America de Cali-0.04on par

Deportes Tolima-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

71%

America de Cali or Deportes Tolima

70%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

59%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

18%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

69%

America de Cali 2+ goals

33%

America de Cali 3+ goals

12%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

61%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

24%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

59%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.98 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.18

Deportes Tolima attack 1.05 + America de Cali defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

America de Cali scores more

41%

level

30%

Deportes Tolima scores more

29%

America de Cali at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

A. Rivas

America de Cali · M

7.2

Match Events

12'

C. Valencia

46'

Y. Orozco← C. Alzáte

59'

Y. Rivera← C. Dájome

64'

R. Ramírez← A. Rodríguez

71'

72'

76'

81'

83'

J. Mosquera← A. Rivas

90'

Jonny Mosquera

90+1'

J. Asprilla← K. Ramírez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaDeportes

Overview

45%Possession55%

16Total Shots9

8Corners5

11Fouls20

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target3

10Off Target4

2Blocked2

11Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

296Total Passes354

208Accurate Passes270

70%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls20

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1