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America de Cali vs Chico — Primera A 2018

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chico
Chico
3/28/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 18Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

America de Cali63%
×Draw23%
Chico14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.74
Chico
0.67

America de Cali creates 160% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 112 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.49
Chico
0.57

allows per match

America de Cali
0.77
Chico
1.99

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Chico+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Chico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
86%
America de Cali or Chico
77%
Draw or Chico
37%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
36%
Chico wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
82%
America de Cali 2+ goals
52%
America de Cali 3+ goals
25%
Chico 1+ goals
49%
Chico 2+ goals
15%
Chico 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
82%
Chico (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 190 matches

Chico away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.99 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Chico defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.74

Chico attack 0.57 + America de Cali defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

America de Cali scores more
63%
level
23%
Chico scores more
14%

America de Cali at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: America de Cali 3–0 Chico

America de Cali beat Chico 3-0 in Primera A on March 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Cali.