America de Cali 3–0 Chico: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chico

P. Armero 58'

C. Martínez 18' (pen)

D. Bottinelli 10'

4/7/2018

Primera A · Apertura - 13Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

America de Cali57%

×Draw25%

Chico19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchChico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.81

America de Cali

1.63

Chico

0.81

America de Cali creates 101% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.37

creates per match

0.80

0.83

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Chico

0.80

allows per match

America de Cali

0.83

Chico

1.89

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

America de Cali-0.04on par

Chico-0.63scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Chico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

81%

America de Cali or Chico

75%

Draw or Chico

43%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

31%

Chico wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

80%

America de Cali 2+ goals

48%

America de Cali 3+ goals

22%

Chico 1+ goals

56%

Chico 2+ goals

19%

Chico 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

75%

Chico (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Chico away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.89 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Chico defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Chico attack 0.80 + America de Cali defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

America de Cali scores more

57%

level

25%

Chico scores more

19%

America de Cali at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

P. Armero

America de Cali · D

8.7

Match Events

10'

D. Bottinelli↳ P. Armero

18'

C. MartínezPenalty

42'

Juan David Díaz

46'

J. Mora← Y. Tobar

54'

Juan David Díaz

54'

Juan David Díaz

55'

Felipe Ponce

58'

P. Armero↳ D. Bottinelli

59'

J. Mosquera← A. Bernal

66'

C. Esterilla← M. Riascos

70'

Darío Bottinelli

76'

K. Viveros← C. Dájome

81'

C. Canizales← J. Monroy

86'

J. Asprilla← C. Martínez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaChico

Overview

72%Possession28%

19Total Shots9

5Corners3

15Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots9

9On Target1

6Off Target4

4Blocked4

8Inside Box4

11Outside Box5

Passing

72%Possession28%

602Total Passes220

539Accurate Passes154

90%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards2

2Offsides5