America de Cali 1–1 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bucaramanga

M. Rangel 61' (pen)

J. Pérez 69'

9/22/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 12Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero (Santiago de Cali)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

America de Cali46%

×Draw29%

Bucaramanga25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.86

America de Cali

1.28

Bucaramanga

0.86

America de Cali creates 49% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.37

creates per match

0.89

0.83

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Bucaramanga

0.89

allows per match

America de Cali

0.83

Bucaramanga

1.19

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

America de Cali-0.04on par

Bucaramanga-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

75%

America de Cali or Bucaramanga

71%

Draw or Bucaramanga

54%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

21%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

72%

America de Cali 2+ goals

37%

America de Cali 3+ goals

14%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

58%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

21%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

65%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Bucaramanga defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Bucaramanga attack 0.89 + America de Cali defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

America de Cali scores more

46%

level

29%

Bucaramanga scores more

25%

America de Cali at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Cabrera

America de Cali

7.6

Match Events

8'

24'

39'

45'

45'

61'

M. RangelPenalty

64'

S. Romero← G. Gómez

69'

J. Pérez↳ C. Quintero

73'

M. Rangel

78'

D. Vergara

80'

J. Medina← M. Pisano

83'

R. Lemus← C. Ibargüen

87'

R. Lemus

87'

J. Murillo← J. Zuluaga

89'

J. Caballero← J. Pérez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaBucaramanga

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots3

8Corners2

21Fouls18

Shots

18Total Shots3

6On Target1

10Off Target2

2Blocked0

7Inside Box1

11Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

394Total Passes383

335Accurate Passes313

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

21Fouls18

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4