America de Cali 2–1 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bucaramanga

J. Angulo 74'

A. Rivas 21'

J. Pérez 86'

3/19/2018

Primera A · Apertura - 9Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

America de Cali46%

×Draw29%

Bucaramanga25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.86

America de Cali

1.28

Bucaramanga

0.86

America de Cali creates 49% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.37

creates per match

0.89

0.83

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

America de Cali

1.37

Bucaramanga

0.89

allows per match

America de Cali

0.83

Bucaramanga

1.19

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

America de Cali-0.04on par

Bucaramanga-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

75%

America de Cali or Bucaramanga

71%

Draw or Bucaramanga

54%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

21%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

72%

America de Cali 2+ goals

37%

America de Cali 3+ goals

14%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

58%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

21%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

65%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.37 + Bucaramanga defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Bucaramanga attack 0.89 + America de Cali defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

America de Cali scores more

46%

level

29%

Bucaramanga scores more

25%

America de Cali at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Angulo

America de Cali · D

8.3

Match Events

18'

21'

41'

49'

57'

J. Caballero← Y. Filigrana

64'

J. Cuero← C. Lizarazo

69'

G. Carvajal← A. Rivas

72'

Gabriel Gómez

74'

M. Rangel← F. Arizala

74'

76'

76'

77'

86'

F. Micolta← C. Valencia

86'

J. Pérez↳ S. Cárdenas

90'

Carlos Bejarano

90'

Harold Gomez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaBucaramanga

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots21

4Corners5

26Fouls24

Shots

12Total Shots21

5On Target9

5Off Target7

2Blocked5

2Inside Box9

10Outside Box12

Passing

47%Possession53%

415Total Passes449

331Accurate Passes365

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

26Fouls24

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2