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America de Cali vs Atletico-MG — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
S. Moreno 24'
E. Vargas 90+7'
Guilherme Arana 54'
Hulk 21'
5/14/2021CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group H - 4Estadio Romelio Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

America de Cali24%
×Draw29%
Atletico-MG48%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
0.82
Atletico-MG
1.29

Atletico-MG creates 57% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

creates per match

America de Cali
0.83
Atletico-MG
1.07

allows per match

America de Cali
1.50
Atletico-MG
0.81

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Atletico-MG+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Atletico-MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
52%
America de Cali or Atletico-MG
71%
Draw or Atletico-MG
76%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
7%
Atletico-MG wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
56%
America de Cali 2+ goals
20%
America de Cali 3+ goals
5%
Atletico-MG 1+ goals
72%
Atletico-MG 2+ goals
37%
Atletico-MG 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
33%
Atletico-MG (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 0.83 + Atletico-MG defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.82

Atletico-MG attack 1.07 + America de Cali defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

America de Cali scores more
24%
level
29%
Atletico-MG scores more
48%

Atletico-MG at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
S. MorenoAmerica de CaliAmerica de Cali · F
7.9

Match Events

21'
Hulk↳ I. Fernández
24'
S. Moreno↳ R. Carrascal
33'
Santiago Moreno
54'
Guilherme Arana↳ J. Savarino
56'
Jair
62'
Cristian Arrieta
65'
A. Rodríguez← D. Vergara
70'
Kevin Andrade
82'
Dodô← I. Fernández
82'
E. Vargas← J. Savarino
82'
Diego Tardelli← Keno
83'
L. Sánchez← S. Moreno
83'
J. Rodríguez← L. Paz
88'
Réver← Jair
90+3'
Kevin Andrade
90+3'
Kevin Andrade
90+1'
Allan← Hulk
90+7'
E. Vargas↳ Diego Tardelli

Possession

61%America

Shots

12America

Pass accuracy

52%America

Statistics

AmericaAtletico-MG
Overview
61%Possession39%
12Total Shots20
6Corners7
20Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots20
4On Target11
3Off Target4
5Blocked5
11Inside Box14
1Outside Box6
Passing
61%Possession39%
470Total Passes295
407Accurate Passes232
87%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
8Saves3
Discipline
20Fouls12
4Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
2Offsides3

CONMEBOL Libertadores: America de Cali 1–3 Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG beat America de Cali 3-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 14, 2021.

Goals: Hulk (21'), S. Moreno (24'), Guilherme Arana (54'), E. Vargas (90+7').

America de Cali controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio Romelio Martínez in Barranquilla.