Amed 1–2 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Amed

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Erzurumspor FK

D. Moreno 54'

C. Sylla 76'

T. Teklić 27'

3/16/2025

1. Lig · Round 30Diyarbakır Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Amed49%

×Draw26%

Erzurumspor FK25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmedExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.98

Amed

1.49

Erzurumspor FK

0.98

Amed creates 52% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 109 away

1.92

creates per match

1.15

0.82

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Amed

1.92

Erzurumspor FK

1.15

allows per match

Amed

0.82

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amed+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amed ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Amed or draw

75%

Amed or Erzurumspor FK

74%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

51%

Winning margin

Amed wins by 2+

25%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Amed 1+ goals

77%

Amed 2+ goals

44%

Amed 3+ goals

19%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

62%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

26%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amed (draw refunded)

66%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amed at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amed attack 1.92 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.49

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.15 + Amed defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Amed scores more

49%

level

26%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

25%

Amed at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Amed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Dadakdeniz

Erzurumspor FK · G

8.0

Match Events

27'

32'

47'

47'

51'

54'

64'

70'

Y. Cassubie← A. Biyogo Poko

74'

B. Adekanye← Fernando Andrade

76'

C. Sylla↳ G. Crociata

81'

81'

83'

83'

83'

Bruno Lourenço← Ç. Orhan

90+2'

Mehmet Yeşil

90'

S. Mamba← E. Tozlu

90+3'

Y. Kırtay← A. Okechukwu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmedErzurumspor

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots7

3Corners0

16Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots7

6On Target5

4Off Target2

2Blocked0

6Inside Box6

6Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

388Total Passes315

315Accurate Passes216

81%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls17

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1