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Amed vs Çorum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Amed
Amed
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Çorum FK
Çorum FK
4/19/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 35Diyarbakır Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Amed48%
×Draw25%
Çorum FK26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amed
1.55
Çorum FK
1.08

Amed creates 44% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Amed
1.92
Çorum FK
1.35

allows per match

Amed
0.82
Çorum FK
1.18

finishing

Amed+0.00on par
Çorum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amed ↓

Çorum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Amed or draw
74%
Amed or Çorum FK
75%
Draw or Çorum FK
52%

Winning margin

Amed wins by 2+
25%
Çorum FK wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Amed 1+ goals
79%
Amed 2+ goals
46%
Amed 3+ goals
20%
Çorum FK 1+ goals
66%
Çorum FK 2+ goals
29%
Çorum FK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Amed (draw refunded)
65%
Çorum FK (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amed at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Çorum FK away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amed attack 1.92 + Çorum FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.55

Çorum FK attack 1.35 + Amed defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Amed scores more
48%
level
25%
Çorum FK scores more
26%

Amed at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Amed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Amed 1–0 Çorum FK

Amed beat Çorum FK 1-0 in 1. Lig on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Diyarbakır Stadyumu in Diyarbakır.