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Amed vs Bandırmaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Amed
Amed
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
1/21/2016Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Group Stage - 5Seyrantepe Spor Kompleksi Stadyumu 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Amed43%
×Draw19%
Bandırmaspor38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amed
2.60
Bandırmaspor
2.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Amed
2.20
Bandırmaspor
1.86

allows per match

Amed
3.00
Bandırmaspor
3.00

finishing

Amed+0.00on par
Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amed ↓

Bandırmaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Amed or draw
62%
Amed or Bandırmaspor
81%
Draw or Bandırmaspor
57%

Winning margin

Amed wins by 2+
26%
Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Amed 1+ goals
92%
Amed 2+ goals
73%
Amed 3+ goals
47%
Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
91%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
69%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Amed (draw refunded)
53%
Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amed at home — creates 2.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.86, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amed attack 2.20 + Bandırmaspor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Bandırmaspor attack 1.86 + Amed defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Amed scores more
43%
level
19%
Bandırmaspor scores more
38%

Amed at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Amed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Amed 3–3 Bandırmaspor

Amed and Bandırmaspor drew 3-3 in Türkiye Kupası on January 21, 2016.

The match was played at Seyrantepe Spor Kompleksi Stadyumu 1 in Diyarbakır.