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Amed vs Ağrı 1970 — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Amed
Amed
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ağrı 1970
Ağrı 1970
9/24/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundDiyarbakır Yeni Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Amed41%
×Draw19%
Ağrı 197040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amed
2.44
Ağrı 1970
2.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Amed
2.20
Ağrı 1970
1.83

allows per match

Amed
3.00
Ağrı 1970
2.67

finishing

Amed+0.00on par
Ağrı 1970+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amed ↓

Ağrı 1970 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Amed or draw
60%
Amed or Ağrı 1970
81%
Draw or Ağrı 1970
59%

Winning margin

Amed wins by 2+
24%
Ağrı 1970 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Amed 1+ goals
91%
Amed 2+ goals
70%
Amed 3+ goals
43%
Ağrı 1970 1+ goals
91%
Ağrı 1970 2+ goals
69%
Ağrı 1970 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Amed (draw refunded)
50%
Ağrı 1970 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amed at home — creates 2.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Ağrı 1970 away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amed attack 2.20 + Ağrı 1970 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.44

Ağrı 1970 attack 1.83 + Amed defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Amed scores more
41%
level
19%
Ağrı 1970 scores more
40%

Amed at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Amed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amed vs Ağrı 1970

Amed beat Ağrı 1970 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 24, 2019.

The match was played at Diyarbakır Yeni Stadyumu in Diyarbakır.