Amed 4–0 Adanaspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Amed

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Adanaspor

D. Moreno 89'

Y. Ceylan 58'

O. Aydin 23'

A. Traoré 21'

5/4/2025

1. Lig · Round 37Diyarbakır Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Amed59%

×Draw23%

Adanaspor18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmedExpected goals in this matchAdanaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.85

Amed

1.77

Adanaspor

0.85

Amed creates 108% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 116 away

1.92

creates per match

0.89

0.82

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Amed

1.92

Adanaspor

0.89

allows per match

Amed

0.82

Adanaspor

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amed+0.00on par

Adanaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amed ↓

Adanaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Amed or draw

82%

Amed or Adanaspor

77%

Draw or Adanaspor

41%

Winning margin

Amed wins by 2+

34%

Adanaspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Amed 1+ goals

83%

Amed 2+ goals

53%

Amed 3+ goals

26%

Adanaspor 1+ goals

57%

Adanaspor 2+ goals

21%

Adanaspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Amed (draw refunded)

77%

Adanaspor (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amed at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Adanaspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.61 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amed attack 1.92 + Adanaspor defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.77

Adanaspor attack 0.89 + Amed defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Amed scores more

59%

level

23%

Adanaspor scores more

18%

Amed at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Amed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Traoré

Amed · M

8.7

Match Events

6'

Ugur Adem Gezer

21'

A. Traoré↳ Y. Ceylan

23'

O. Aydin↳ Fernando Andrade

37'

Mehmet Murat Uçar

46'

B. Tur← M. Uçar

46'

58'

61'

64'

64'

70'

74'

74'

Bruno Lourenço← Y. Cassubie

81'

82'

82'

89'

90'

S. Emlik← M. Yıldırım

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmedAdanaspor

Overview

69%Possession31%

25Total Shots3

9Corners1

12Fouls12

Shots

25Total Shots3

11On Target1

5Off Target1

9Blocked1

15Inside Box1

10Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

593Total Passes272

542Accurate Passes208

91%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1