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Ambrosiana vs Tamai — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
FT
5 – 0
Tamai
Tamai
L. Menini 85'
N. Righetti 83'
N. Pangrazio 55', 7'
M. Porcelli 14'
1/11/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 21Stadio Montindon (Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ambrosiana55%
×Draw24%
Tamai21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ambrosiana
1.75
Tamai
0.98

Ambrosiana creates 79% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ambrosiana
1.81
Tamai
0.54

allows per match

Ambrosiana
1.42
Tamai
1.69

finishing

Ambrosiana+0.00on par
Tamai+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ambrosiana ↓

Tamai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ambrosiana or draw
79%
Ambrosiana or Tamai
76%
Draw or Tamai
45%

Winning margin

Ambrosiana wins by 2+
31%
Tamai wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ambrosiana 1+ goals
83%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
52%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
25%
Tamai 1+ goals
62%
Tamai 2+ goals
26%
Tamai 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
72%
Tamai (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ambrosiana at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Tamai away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ambrosiana attack 1.81 + Tamai defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tamai attack 0.54 + Ambrosiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ambrosiana scores more
55%
level
24%
Tamai scores more
21%

Ambrosiana at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
N. Pangrazio
14'
M. Porcelli
55'
N. Pangrazio
83'
N. Righetti
85'
L. Menini

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ambrosiana 5 – 0 Tamai

Ambrosiana beat Tamai 5-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 11, 2020.

Goals: N. Pangrazio (7', 55'), M. Porcelli (14'), N. Righetti (83'), L. Menini (85').

The match was played at Stadio Montindon (Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella).