Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ambrosiana vs San Martino Speme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
FT
6 – 2
HT: 4 – 0
San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
A. Konate 90+5'
J. Boix 75'
M. Giordano 45+3'
J. Menolli 40'
M. Malago 17'
E. Manconi 4'
D. Antinoro 86', 74'
2/20/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 21Stadio Montindon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ambrosiana57%
×Draw22%
San Martino Speme21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ambrosiana
1.97
San Martino Speme
1.12

Ambrosiana creates 76% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ambrosiana
1.81
San Martino Speme
0.82

allows per match

Ambrosiana
1.42
San Martino Speme
2.12

finishing

Ambrosiana+0.00on par
San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ambrosiana ↓

San Martino Speme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ambrosiana or draw
79%
Ambrosiana or San Martino Speme
78%
Draw or San Martino Speme
43%

Winning margin

Ambrosiana wins by 2+
34%
San Martino Speme wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ambrosiana 1+ goals
86%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
58%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
31%
San Martino Speme 1+ goals
67%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
31%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
73%
San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ambrosiana at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

San Martino Speme away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ambrosiana attack 1.81 + San Martino Speme defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.97

San Martino Speme attack 0.82 + Ambrosiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ambrosiana scores more
57%
level
22%
San Martino Speme scores more
21%

Ambrosiana at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
E. Manconi
17'
M. Malago
40'
J. Menolli
45+3'
M. Giordano
74'
D. Antinoro
75'
J. Boix
86'
D. Antinoro
90+5'
A. Konate

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ambrosiana vs San Martino Speme

Ambrosiana beat San Martino Speme 6-2 in Serie D - Girone C on February 20, 2022.

Goals: E. Manconi (4'), M. Malago (17'), J. Menolli (40'), M. Giordano (45+3'), D. Antinoro (74', 86'), J. Boix (75'), A. Konate (90+5').

The match was played at Stadio Montindon in Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella.