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Ambrosiana vs Montebelluna — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
PST
13:00
Montebelluna
Montebelluna
4/5/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 34Stadio Montindon (Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ambrosiana45%
×Draw24%
Montebelluna30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ambrosiana
1.64
Montebelluna
1.30

Ambrosiana creates 26% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 64 away

creates per match

Ambrosiana
1.81
Montebelluna
1.19

allows per match

Ambrosiana
1.42
Montebelluna
1.47

finishing

Ambrosiana+0.00on par
Montebelluna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ambrosiana ↓

Montebelluna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ambrosiana or draw
70%
Ambrosiana or Montebelluna
76%
Draw or Montebelluna
55%

Winning margin

Ambrosiana wins by 2+
23%
Montebelluna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ambrosiana 1+ goals
81%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
49%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
23%
Montebelluna 1+ goals
73%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
37%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
60%
Montebelluna (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ambrosiana at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Montebelluna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ambrosiana attack 1.81 + Montebelluna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.64

Montebelluna attack 1.19 + Ambrosiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ambrosiana scores more
45%
level
24%
Montebelluna scores more
30%

Ambrosiana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ambrosiana face Montebelluna (Serie D - Girone C)

Serie D - Girone C returns with Ambrosiana hosting Montebelluna. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ambrosiana host Montebelluna at Stadio Montindon (Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.