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Ambrosiana vs Luparense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
FT
5 – 1
Luparense
Luparense
M. N'Ze 81'
M. Porcelli 45'
D. Biasi 25'
M. Manfroni 21'
L. Moscatelli 3' (pen)
M. Moras 88'
1/26/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 24Stadio Montindon (Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ambrosiana43%
×Draw25%
Luparense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ambrosiana
1.56
Luparense
1.31

Ambrosiana creates 19% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 101 away

creates per match

Ambrosiana
1.81
Luparense
1.21

allows per match

Ambrosiana
1.42
Luparense
1.30

finishing

Ambrosiana+0.00on par
Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ambrosiana ↓

Luparense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ambrosiana or draw
68%
Ambrosiana or Luparense
75%
Draw or Luparense
57%

Winning margin

Ambrosiana wins by 2+
22%
Luparense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ambrosiana 1+ goals
79%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
46%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
21%
Luparense 1+ goals
73%
Luparense 2+ goals
38%
Luparense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
57%
Luparense (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ambrosiana at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ambrosiana attack 1.81 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Luparense attack 1.21 + Ambrosiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ambrosiana scores more
43%
level
25%
Luparense scores more
32%

Ambrosiana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
L. MoscatelliPenalty
21'
M. Manfroni
25'
D. Biasi
45'
M. Porcelli
81'
M. N'Ze
88'
M. Moras

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ambrosiana vs Luparense

Ambrosiana beat Luparense 5-1 in Serie D - Girone C on January 26, 2020.

Goals: L. Moscatelli (3' pen), M. Manfroni (21'), D. Biasi (25'), M. Porcelli (45'), M. N'Ze (81'), M. Moras (88').

The match was played at Stadio Montindon (Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella).