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Ambrosiana vs Levico — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Levico
Levico
12/22/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 16Stadio Montindon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ambrosiana52%
×Draw24%
Levico24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ambrosiana
1.67
Levico
1.06

Ambrosiana creates 58% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ambrosiana
1.81
Levico
0.71

allows per match

Ambrosiana
1.42
Levico
1.53

finishing

Ambrosiana+0.00on par
Levico+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ambrosiana ↓

Levico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ambrosiana or draw
76%
Ambrosiana or Levico
76%
Draw or Levico
48%

Winning margin

Ambrosiana wins by 2+
28%
Levico wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ambrosiana 1+ goals
81%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
50%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
23%
Levico 1+ goals
65%
Levico 2+ goals
29%
Levico 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
68%
Levico (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ambrosiana at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Levico away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ambrosiana attack 1.81 + Levico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Levico attack 0.71 + Ambrosiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ambrosiana scores more
52%
level
24%
Levico scores more
24%

Ambrosiana at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ambrosiana vs Levico

Ambrosiana and Levico drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Montindon in Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella.