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Ambrosiana vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
E. Manconi 77'
J. Menolli 75'
A. Tibolla 47' (OG)
A. Cossalter 37', 35', 13'
3/30/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 26Stadio Montindon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ambrosiana40%
×Draw25%
Dolomiti Bellunesi36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ambrosiana
1.52
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 70 away

creates per match

Ambrosiana
1.81
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Ambrosiana
1.42
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Ambrosiana+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ambrosiana ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ambrosiana or draw
64%
Ambrosiana or Dolomiti Bellunesi
75%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
60%

Winning margin

Ambrosiana wins by 2+
19%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ambrosiana 1+ goals
78%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
45%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
20%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
76%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
42%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
52%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ambrosiana at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ambrosiana attack 1.81 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Ambrosiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ambrosiana scores more
40%
level
25%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
36%

Ambrosiana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
A. Cossalter
35'
A. Cossalter
37'
A. Cossalter
47'
A. TibollaOwn goal
75'
J. Menolli
77'
E. Manconi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Ambrosiana 3–3 Dolomiti Bellunesi

Ambrosiana and Dolomiti Bellunesi drew 3-3 in Serie D - Girone C on March 30, 2022.

Goals: A. Cossalter (13', 35', 37'), A. Tibolla (47' o.g.), J. Menolli (75'), E. Manconi (77').

The match was played at Stadio Montindon in Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella.