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Amazulu vs Royal AM — Premier Soccer League 2018

Amazulu
Amazulu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Royal AM
Royal AM
2/25/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 17Moses Mabhida Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Amazulu45%
×Draw27%
Royal AM28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amazulu
1.35
Royal AM
1.00

Amazulu creates 35% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 50 away

creates per match

Amazulu
1.09
Royal AM
1.10

allows per match

Amazulu
0.89
Royal AM
1.62

finishing

Amazulu+0.00on par
Royal AM+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazulu ↓

Royal AM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Amazulu or draw
72%
Amazulu or Royal AM
73%
Draw or Royal AM
55%

Winning margin

Amazulu wins by 2+
21%
Royal AM wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Amazulu 1+ goals
74%
Amazulu 2+ goals
39%
Amazulu 3+ goals
15%
Royal AM 1+ goals
63%
Royal AM 2+ goals
26%
Royal AM 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Amazulu (draw refunded)
62%
Royal AM (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazulu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.89 · 120 matches

Royal AM away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.62 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazulu attack 1.09 + Royal AM defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Royal AM attack 1.10 + Amazulu defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Amazulu scores more
45%
level
27%
Royal AM scores more
28%

Amazulu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Amazulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amazulu vs Royal AM

Amazulu and Royal AM drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban.