Amazulu 0–1 Nyasa Big Bullets: Result & Stats

Amazulu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nyasa Big Bullets

C. Msowoya 26'

9/10/2021

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundMoses Mabhida Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Amazulu44%

×Draw34%

Nyasa Big Bullets22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmazuluExpected goals in this matchNyasa Big Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.60

Amazulu

1.00

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.60

Amazulu creates 67% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.40

creates per match

0.60

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Amazulu

0.40

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.60

allows per match

Amazulu

0.60

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amazulu+0.00on par

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazulu ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Amazulu or draw

78%

Amazulu or Nyasa Big Bullets

66%

Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets

56%

Winning margin

Amazulu wins by 2+

17%

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Amazulu 1+ goals

63%

Amazulu 2+ goals

26%

Amazulu 3+ goals

8%

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals

45%

Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals

12%

Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Amazulu (draw refunded)

67%

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazulu at home — creates 0.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazulu attack 0.40 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 0.60 + Amazulu defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Amazulu scores more

44%

level

34%

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more

22%

Amazulu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Amazulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

C. Msowoya

40'

Yamikani Fodya

44'

P. Phiri← C. Msowoya

46'

S. Mthembu← S. Maduna

65'

H. Ekstein← L. Majoro

65'

S. Sithebe← X. Mlambo

78'

B. Munthali← A. Mfune

89'

B. Manyozo← H. Kabichi

Amazulu

Nyasa

23

7

13

33

25

6

15

37

▼

Mfune

17

▼

Kabichi

24

Ngwira

14

⚽

▼

40

18

27

4

13

11

15

8

23

▼

Mlambo

34

▼

Maduna

20

▼

Majoro

Manager: B. McCarthy

46'▲S. Mthembu←▼S. Maduna

65'▲H. Ekstein←▼L. Majoro

65'▲S. Sithebe←▼X. Mlambo

Amazulu substitutes

9Mthembu28Ekstein10Sithebe33Buchanan25Mzava17Gumede35Boshoff39Mgwazela24Masilela

Manager: C. Pasuwa

44'▲P. Phiri←▼C. Msowoya

78'▲B. Munthali←▼A. Mfune

89'▲B. Manyozo←▼H. Kabichi

Nyasa Big Bullets substitutes

20Phiri18Munthali28Manyozo2Kaonga30Selemani3Nyasulu29Kansungwi1Chiyenda26Mkanda