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Amazulu vs Maritzburg Utd — Premier Soccer League 2018

Amazulu
Amazulu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
4/16/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 20Moses Mabhida Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Amazulu44%
×Draw31%
Maritzburg Utd25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amazulu
1.13
Maritzburg Utd
0.77

Amazulu creates 47% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 77 away

creates per match

Amazulu
1.09
Maritzburg Utd
0.64

allows per match

Amazulu
0.89
Maritzburg Utd
1.16

finishing

Amazulu+0.00on par
Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazulu ↓

Maritzburg Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Amazulu or draw
75%
Amazulu or Maritzburg Utd
69%
Draw or Maritzburg Utd
56%

Winning margin

Amazulu wins by 2+
19%
Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Amazulu 1+ goals
68%
Amazulu 2+ goals
31%
Amazulu 3+ goals
11%
Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
54%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
18%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Amazulu (draw refunded)
64%
Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazulu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.89 · 120 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazulu attack 1.09 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Amazulu defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Amazulu scores more
44%
level
31%
Maritzburg Utd scores more
25%

Amazulu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Amazulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amazulu vs Maritzburg Utd

Amazulu beat Maritzburg Utd 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban.