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Amazulu vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Amazulu
Amazulu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
2/24/2026Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 18Princess Magogo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Amazulu26%
×Draw30%
Mamelodi Sundowns45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amazulu
0.85
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.22

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 44% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 119 away

creates per match

Amazulu
1.09
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.54

allows per match

Amazulu
0.89
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.62

finishing

Amazulu+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazulu ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Amazulu or draw
55%
Amazulu or Mamelodi Sundowns
70%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
74%

Winning margin

Amazulu wins by 2+
8%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Amazulu 1+ goals
57%
Amazulu 2+ goals
21%
Amazulu 3+ goals
5%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
70%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
34%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Amazulu (draw refunded)
37%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazulu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.89 · 120 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazulu attack 1.09 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.85

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.54 + Amazulu defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Amazulu scores more
26%
level
30%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
45%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amazulu vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Amazulu 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on February 24, 2026.

The match was played at Princess Magogo Stadium in Durban.