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Amazulu vs Free State Stars — Premier Soccer League 2018

Amazulu
Amazulu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Free State Stars
Free State Stars
8/19/2018Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 3King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium (Durban, KN)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Amazulu50%
×Draw27%
Free State Stars22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amazulu
1.41
Free State Stars
0.84

Amazulu creates 68% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

creates per match

Amazulu
1.09
Free State Stars
0.80

allows per match

Amazulu
0.89
Free State Stars
1.73

finishing

Amazulu+0.00on par
Free State Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazulu ↓

Free State Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Amazulu or draw
78%
Amazulu or Free State Stars
73%
Draw or Free State Stars
50%

Winning margin

Amazulu wins by 2+
25%
Free State Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Amazulu 1+ goals
76%
Amazulu 2+ goals
41%
Amazulu 3+ goals
17%
Free State Stars 1+ goals
57%
Free State Stars 2+ goals
21%
Free State Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Amazulu (draw refunded)
69%
Free State Stars (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazulu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.89 · 120 matches

Free State Stars away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazulu attack 1.09 + Free State Stars defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.41

Free State Stars attack 0.80 + Amazulu defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Amazulu scores more
50%
level
27%
Free State Stars scores more
22%

Amazulu at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Amazulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Amazulu 2 – 1 Free State Stars

Amazulu beat Free State Stars 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium (Durban, KN).