Amazulu 0–3 Bidvest Wits: Result & Stats

Amazulu

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Bidvest Wits

8/3/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 1King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Amazulu31%

×Draw31%

Bidvest Wits38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmazuluExpected goals in this matchBidvest Wits

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.03

Amazulu

0.91

Bidvest Wits

1.03

Bidvest Wits creates 13% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

1.09

creates per match

1.17

0.89

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Amazulu

1.09

Bidvest Wits

1.17

allows per match

Amazulu

0.89

Bidvest Wits

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amazulu+0.00on par

Bidvest Wits+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazulu ↓

Bidvest Wits →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Amazulu or draw

62%

Amazulu or Bidvest Wits

69%

Draw or Bidvest Wits

69%

Winning margin

Amazulu wins by 2+

11%

Bidvest Wits wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Amazulu 1+ goals

60%

Amazulu 2+ goals

23%

Amazulu 3+ goals

6%

Bidvest Wits 1+ goals

64%

Bidvest Wits 2+ goals

28%

Bidvest Wits 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Amazulu (draw refunded)

45%

Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazulu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.89 · 120 matches

Bidvest Wits away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazulu attack 1.09 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Bidvest Wits attack 1.17 + Amazulu defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Amazulu scores more

31%

level

31%

Bidvest Wits scores more

38%

Bidvest Wits at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bidvest Wits will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff