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Amazulu vs Ajax Cape Town — Premier Soccer League 2018

Amazulu
Amazulu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ajax Cape Town
Ajax Cape Town
12/22/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 11Moses Mabhida Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Amazulu45%
×Draw29%
Ajax Cape Town26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amazulu
1.23
Ajax Cape Town
0.86

Amazulu creates 43% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 19 away

creates per match

Amazulu
1.09
Ajax Cape Town
0.84

allows per match

Amazulu
0.89
Ajax Cape Town
1.37

finishing

Amazulu+0.00on par
Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazulu ↓

Ajax Cape Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Amazulu or draw
74%
Amazulu or Ajax Cape Town
71%
Draw or Ajax Cape Town
55%

Winning margin

Amazulu wins by 2+
20%
Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Amazulu 1+ goals
71%
Amazulu 2+ goals
35%
Amazulu 3+ goals
13%
Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals
58%
Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals
21%
Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Amazulu (draw refunded)
63%
Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazulu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.89 · 120 matches

Ajax Cape Town away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazulu attack 1.09 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.84 + Amazulu defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Amazulu scores more
45%
level
29%
Ajax Cape Town scores more
26%

Amazulu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Amazulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amazulu vs Ajax Cape Town

Amazulu and Ajax Cape Town drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on December 22, 2023.

The match was played at Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban.