Amazonas 1–1 Paysandu: Result & Stats | Serie B

Amazonas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Paysandu

Matheus Serafim 39'

E. García 45+2'

5/18/2024

Serie B · Round 6Arena da Amazônia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Amazonas39%

×Draw28%

Paysandu33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmazonasExpected goals in this matchPaysandu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.11

Amazonas

1.25

Paysandu

1.11

Amazonas creates 13% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

1.05

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Amazonas

1.20

Paysandu

1.17

allows per match

Amazonas

1.05

Paysandu

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amazonas+0.00on par

Paysandu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazonas ↓

Paysandu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Amazonas or draw

67%

Amazonas or Paysandu

72%

Draw or Paysandu

61%

Winning margin

Amazonas wins by 2+

17%

Paysandu wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Amazonas 1+ goals

71%

Amazonas 2+ goals

36%

Amazonas 3+ goals

13%

Paysandu 1+ goals

67%

Paysandu 2+ goals

30%

Paysandu 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Amazonas (draw refunded)

55%

Paysandu (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazonas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Paysandu away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazonas attack 1.20 + Paysandu defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Paysandu attack 1.17 + Amazonas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Amazonas scores more

39%

level

28%

Paysandu scores more

33%

Amazonas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Amazonas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Matheus Serafim

Amazonas · M

8.2

Match Events

18'

Kevyn

34'

João Pedro

39'

Matheus Serafim↳ Rafael Tavares

45+2'

E. García↳ Juninho

46'

Jô← Bruno Lopes

46'

Igor Bolt← Ênio

46'

Bryan← Kevyn

59'

Pará← Wendell

62'

Bryan

65'

Rafael Tavares

66'

Yefferson Quintana

71'

D. Torres← Rafael Tavares

76'

Crystopher← Juninho

77'

Gabriel Santos← Ruan Ribeiro

82'

Wesley Fraga← João Vieira

84'

Ezequiel← Patric

85'

85'

90+5'

90+2'

90+5'

90+2'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmazonasPaysandu

Overview

35%Possession65%

15Total Shots13

0.81Expected Goals (xG)1.45

6Corners9

10Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots13

8On Target5

5Off Target6

2Blocked2

11Inside Box10

4Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

237Total Passes459

164Accurate Passes387

69%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls18

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1