Amazonas 2–0 Maranhão: Result & Stats | Serie C

Amazonas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

4/18/2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Amazonas50%

×Draw32%

Maranhão17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmazonasExpected goals in this matchMaranhão

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.52

Amazonas

1.12

Maranhão

0.52

Amazonas creates 115% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

1.10

creates per match

0.43

0.60

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Amazonas

1.10

Maranhão

0.43

allows per match

Amazonas

0.60

Maranhão

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amazonas+0.00on par

Maranhão+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazonas ↓

Maranhão →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–110%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Amazonas or draw

83%

Amazonas or Maranhão

68%

Draw or Maranhão

50%

Winning margin

Amazonas wins by 2+

22%

Maranhão wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Amazonas 1+ goals

67%

Amazonas 2+ goals

31%

Amazonas 3+ goals

10%

Maranhão 1+ goals

41%

Maranhão 2+ goals

10%

Maranhão 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Amazonas (draw refunded)

75%

Maranhão (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazonas at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

Maranhão away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazonas attack 1.10 + Maranhão defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.12

Maranhão attack 0.43 + Amazonas defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Amazonas scores more

50%

level

32%

Maranhão scores more

17%

Amazonas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Amazonas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

14'

28'

28'

45+11'

45'

46'

Fabinho← Jorge Jimenez

46'

Felipe Sales← Rafael Teixeira

46'

Vander← Railson

46'

Luis Gustavo← Felipe Cruz

57'

Raylison Pacheco← Vinicius Leite

63'

Rafael Tavares← P. Nunez

63'

Lucas Santos← Andre Radija

76'

Jhonny Lucas← N. Schiappacasse

76'

Italo Silva← Gabriel Domingos

79'

Gabriel Cipriano

79'

Gabriel Cipriano

82'

Rafael Tavares

87'

Joelson← Vagalume

90+6'

Mauricio

Amazonas

Maranhão

1

25

18

4

16

▼

Radija

5

▼

Railson

15

Rosivan

20

▼

Vagalume

17

Will

19

▼

Teixeira

29

▼

33

2

4

5

▼

Jimenez

6

Fabiano

11

▼

Leite

17

Vitor

20

⚽

▼

Schiappac

23

▼

Nunez

26

▼

Domingos

28

⚽

Cipriano

Manager: Souza Cristian

46'▲Fabinho←▼Jorge Jimenez

57'▲Raylison Pacheco←▼Vinicius Leite

63'▲Rafael Tavares←▼P. Nunez

76'▲Jhonny Lucas←▼N. Schiappacasse

76'▲Italo Silva←▼Gabriel Domingos

Amazonas substitutes

1Lopes3Marcondes8Lucas9Ronaldo10Tavares14Scalese15Pacheco18Cocote21Graffin22Jesus25Silva27Fabinho

Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro

46'▲Felipe Sales←▼Rafael Teixeira

46'▲Vander←▼Railson

46'▲Luis Gustavo←▼Felipe Cruz

63'▲Lucas Santos←▼Andre Radija

87'▲Joelson←▼Vagalume

Maranhão substitutes

12Vitao2Ball3Fernando6Santos7Sales8Vander10Rocha14Tiburcio21Joelson22Rodrigo26Gustavo