Amazonas 2–0 Cuiaba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Amazonas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cuiaba

Henrique Almeida 90'

D. Torres 17'

11/2/2025

Serie B · Round 35Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Amazonas39%

×Draw31%

Cuiaba31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmazonasExpected goals in this matchCuiaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.93

Amazonas

1.08

Cuiaba

0.93

Amazonas creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.26

creates per match

0.73

1.12

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Amazonas

1.26

Cuiaba

0.73

allows per match

Amazonas

1.12

Cuiaba

0.90

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Amazonas-0.12scores less

Cuiaba-0.09on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazonas ↓

Cuiaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Amazonas or draw

69%

Amazonas or Cuiaba

69%

Draw or Cuiaba

61%

Winning margin

Amazonas wins by 2+

16%

Cuiaba wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Amazonas 1+ goals

66%

Amazonas 2+ goals

29%

Amazonas 3+ goals

10%

Cuiaba 1+ goals

61%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

24%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Amazonas (draw refunded)

56%

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazonas at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.12 · 7 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.73, concedes 0.90 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazonas attack 1.26 + Cuiaba defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cuiaba attack 0.73 + Amazonas defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Amazonas scores more

39%

level

31%

Cuiaba scores more

31%

Amazonas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Amazonas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

D. Torres

Amazonas · F

7.5

Match Events

17'

D. Torres

46'

J. Torres← Rafael Tavares

46'

Eduardo Vinicius← Calebe Costa

46'

Juan Christian← Alisson Safira

50'

Léo Coelho

54'

Gabriel Domingos← Guilherme Xavier

54'

William Barbio← C. Akapo

55'

Jader← Denilson Alves

59'

Alejandro Martínez

60'

Sander

63'

Rafael Vitor← Fabiano

68'

Luisao← Guilherme Mariano

73'

Robertinho← L. Vasquez

87'

Diego Torres

90'

Henrique Almeida↳ Erick Varao

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmazonasCuiaba

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots7

7Corners0

12Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target2

6Off Target4

5Blocked1

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

365Total Passes321

285Accurate Passes233

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3