Amazonas 2–1 Brusque: Result & Stats | Serie B

Amazonas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brusque

Jô 90'

Sassá 52'

Wellissol 63'

6/8/2024

Serie B · Round 9Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Amazonas54%

×Draw27%

Brusque20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmazonasExpected goals in this matchBrusque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.75

Amazonas

1.44

Brusque

0.75

Amazonas creates 92% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 24 away

1.18

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Amazonas

1.18

Brusque

0.50

allows per match

Amazonas

1.00

Brusque

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amazonas+0.00on par

Brusque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazonas ↓

Brusque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Amazonas or draw

80%

Amazonas or Brusque

73%

Draw or Brusque

46%

Winning margin

Amazonas wins by 2+

27%

Brusque wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Amazonas 1+ goals

76%

Amazonas 2+ goals

42%

Amazonas 3+ goals

18%

Brusque 1+ goals

53%

Brusque 2+ goals

17%

Brusque 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Amazonas (draw refunded)

73%

Brusque (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazonas at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Brusque away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazonas attack 1.18 + Brusque defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Brusque attack 0.50 + Amazonas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Amazonas scores more

54%

level

27%

Brusque scores more

20%

Amazonas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Amazonas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Torres

Amazonas · M

7.9

Match Events

41'

Jhemerson

46'

Ênio← Igor Bolt

46'

Diego Tavares← Anderson Rosa

46'

Wellissol← Osman Júnior

51'

Ronei← Matheus Pivô

52'

Sassá↳ Rafael Tavares

55'

Sassá

55'

Marcos Serrato

60'

Xavier← Rafael Tavares

63'

Wellissol↳ Diego Tavares

67'

Matheus Melo← D. Torres

72'

Madison← Alex Ruan

73'

Bruno Lopes← Matheus Serafim

73'

Jô← Sassá

73'

Éverton Alemão← Jhemerson

74'

Jorge Roa Jiménez

90'

Jô↳ Patric

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmazonasBrusque

Overview

51%Possession49%

23Total Shots9

12Corners1

14Fouls11

Shots

23Total Shots9

7On Target5

11Off Target3

5Blocked1

12Inside Box7

11Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

410Total Passes401

342Accurate Passes341

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0