Amazon Grimstad W 2–2 Klepp W: Result & Stats

Amazon Grimstad W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Klepp W

9/10/2022

1. Division Women · Relegation Round - 1J.J. Ugland Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Amazon Grimstad W54%

×Draw21%

Klepp W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Amazon Grimstad WExpected goals in this matchKlepp W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.39

Amazon Grimstad W

2.13

Klepp W

1.39

Amazon Grimstad W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

1.69

creates per match

1.32

1.46

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Amazon Grimstad W

1.69

Klepp W

1.32

allows per match

Amazon Grimstad W

1.46

Klepp W

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amazon Grimstad W+0.00on par

Klepp W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazon Grimstad W ↓

Klepp W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Amazon Grimstad W or draw

75%

Amazon Grimstad W or Klepp W

79%

Draw or Klepp W

46%

Winning margin

Amazon Grimstad W wins by 2+

32%

Klepp W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Amazon Grimstad W 1+ goals

88%

Amazon Grimstad W 2+ goals

63%

Amazon Grimstad W 3+ goals

35%

Klepp W 1+ goals

75%

Klepp W 2+ goals

40%

Klepp W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Amazon Grimstad W (draw refunded)

69%

Klepp W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazon Grimstad W at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Klepp W away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazon Grimstad W attack 1.69 + Klepp W defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.13

Klepp W attack 1.32 + Amazon Grimstad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Amazon Grimstad W scores more

54%

level

21%

Klepp W scores more

25%

Amazon Grimstad W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Amazon Grimstad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff