Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Amawele vs Young Buffaloes — Premier League 2020

Amawele
Amawele
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
12/27/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Amawele19%
×Draw24%
Young Buffaloes57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amawele
0.83
Young Buffaloes
1.65

Young Buffaloes creates 99% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 86 away

creates per match

Amawele
0.88
Young Buffaloes
1.86

allows per match

Amawele
1.44
Young Buffaloes
0.78

finishing

Amawele+0.00on par
Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amawele ↓

Young Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Amawele or draw
43%
Amawele or Young Buffaloes
76%
Draw or Young Buffaloes
81%

Winning margin

Amawele wins by 2+
6%
Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Amawele 1+ goals
56%
Amawele 2+ goals
20%
Amawele 3+ goals
5%
Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
81%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
49%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Amawele (draw refunded)
25%
Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amawele at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Young Buffaloes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amawele attack 0.88 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Young Buffaloes attack 1.86 + Amawele defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Amawele scores more
19%
level
24%
Young Buffaloes scores more
57%

Young Buffaloes at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Amawele 1–4 Young Buffaloes

Young Buffaloes beat Amawele 4-1 in Premier League on December 27, 2025.