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Amawele vs Sisonkhe — Premier League 2020

Amawele
Amawele
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sisonkhe
Sisonkhe
4/22/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Amawele40%
×Draw29%
Sisonkhe31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amawele
1.16
Sisonkhe
0.99

Amawele creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 28 away

creates per match

Amawele
0.88
Sisonkhe
0.54

allows per match

Amawele
1.44
Sisonkhe
1.43

finishing

Amawele+0.00on par
Sisonkhe+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amawele ↓

Sisonkhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Amawele or draw
69%
Amawele or Sisonkhe
71%
Draw or Sisonkhe
60%

Winning margin

Amawele wins by 2+
17%
Sisonkhe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Amawele 1+ goals
69%
Amawele 2+ goals
32%
Amawele 3+ goals
11%
Sisonkhe 1+ goals
63%
Sisonkhe 2+ goals
26%
Sisonkhe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Amawele (draw refunded)
56%
Sisonkhe (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amawele at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Sisonkhe away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amawele attack 0.88 + Sisonkhe defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sisonkhe attack 0.54 + Amawele defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Amawele scores more
40%
level
29%
Sisonkhe scores more
31%

Amawele at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Amawele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amawele vs Sisonkhe

Sisonkhe beat Amawele 1-0 in Premier League on April 22, 2026.