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Amawele vs Moneni Pirates — Premier League 2020

Amawele
Amawele
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
5/16/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Amawele33%
×Draw28%
Moneni Pirates39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amawele
1.11
Moneni Pirates
1.24

Moneni Pirates creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 83 away

creates per match

Amawele
0.88
Moneni Pirates
1.04

allows per match

Amawele
1.44
Moneni Pirates
1.35

finishing

Amawele+0.00on par
Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amawele ↓

Moneni Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Amawele or draw
61%
Amawele or Moneni Pirates
72%
Draw or Moneni Pirates
67%

Winning margin

Amawele wins by 2+
13%
Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Amawele 1+ goals
67%
Amawele 2+ goals
30%
Amawele 3+ goals
10%
Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
71%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
35%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Amawele (draw refunded)
46%
Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amawele at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amawele attack 0.88 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Amawele defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Amawele scores more
33%
level
28%
Moneni Pirates scores more
39%

Moneni Pirates at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Moneni Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Amawele 0–1 Moneni Pirates

Moneni Pirates beat Amawele 1-0 in Premier League on May 16, 2026.