Amarante 1–3 Vianense: Result & Stats

Amarante

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Vianense

6/4/2023

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 6Estádio Municipal de Amarante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Amarante44%

×Draw26%

Vianense30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmaranteExpected goals in this matchVianense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.15

Amarante

1.45

Vianense

1.15

Amarante creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

1.14

1.17

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Amarante

1.33

Vianense

1.14

allows per match

Amarante

1.17

Vianense

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amarante+0.00on par

Vianense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amarante ↓

Vianense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Amarante or draw

70%

Amarante or Vianense

74%

Draw or Vianense

56%

Winning margin

Amarante wins by 2+

21%

Vianense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Amarante 1+ goals

77%

Amarante 2+ goals

42%

Amarante 3+ goals

18%

Vianense 1+ goals

68%

Vianense 2+ goals

32%

Vianense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Amarante (draw refunded)

59%

Vianense (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amarante at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Vianense away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amarante attack 1.33 + Vianense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Vianense attack 1.14 + Amarante defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Amarante scores more

44%

level

26%

Vianense scores more

30%

Amarante at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Amarante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff