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Amarante vs União Santarém — Taça de Portugal 2018

Amarante
Amaranteadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
União Santarém
União Santarém
9/21/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 128Amarante Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Amarante63%
×Draw19%
União Santarém18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amarante
2.37
União Santarém
1.20

Amarante creates 98% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Amarante
3.40
União Santarém
2.00

allows per match

Amarante
0.40
União Santarém
1.33

finishing

Amarante+0.00on par
União Santarém+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amarante ↓

União Santarém →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Amarante or draw
82%
Amarante or União Santarém
81%
Draw or União Santarém
37%

Winning margin

Amarante wins by 2+
41%
União Santarém wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Amarante 1+ goals
91%
Amarante 2+ goals
68%
Amarante 3+ goals
42%
União Santarém 1+ goals
70%
União Santarém 2+ goals
34%
União Santarém 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Amarante (draw refunded)
78%
União Santarém (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amarante at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

União Santarém away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amarante attack 3.40 + União Santarém defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.37

União Santarém attack 2.00 + Amarante defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Amarante scores more
63%
level
19%
União Santarém scores more
18%

Amarante at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Amarante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amarante vs União Santarém

Amarante beat União Santarém 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Amarante Stadium in Amarante.